Products
 
Gold Silver Us Dollar Pepper Crude Oil

Gold
Gold is the oldest precious metal known to man. Gold is like an international currency without any country. Thus, it is not only a commodity, but also a monetary asset, seen from the fact that most banks store gold as the basis for printing currency. Some key features of gold are:
  • More than two thirds of gold's total accumulated holdings account as 'value for investment' with central bank reserves, private players and high-carat Jewellery.
  • Less than one third of gold's total accumulated holdings is as a 'commodity' for Jewellery in Western markets and usage in industry.
  • The Gold market is highly liquid and gold held by central banks, other major institutions and retail Jewellery keep coming back to the market.
  • Due to large stocks of Gold as against its demand, it is argued that the core driver of the real price of gold is stock equilibrium rather than flow equilibrium.
  • Economic forces that determine the price of gold are different from, and in many cases opposed to the forces that influence most financial assets.
  • South Africa is the world's largest gold producer with 394 tons in 2001, followed by US and Australia.

India is the world's largest gold consumer with an annual demand of 800 tons.

Indian Gold Market

  • Gold is valued in India as a savings and investment vehicle and is the second preferred investment after bank deposits.
  • India is the world's largest consumer of gold in jewellery as investment.
  • In July 1997 the RBI authorized the commercial banks to import gold for sale or loan to jewellers and exporters. At present, 13 banks are active in the import of gold.
  • This reduced the disparity between international and domestic prices of gold from 57 percent during 1986 to 1991 to 8.5 percent in 2001.
  • The gold hoarding tendency is well ingrained in Indian society.
  • Domestic consumption is dictated by monsoon, harvest and marriage season. Indian jewellery offtake is sensitive to price increases and even more so to volatility.
  • In the cities gold is facing competition from the stock market and a wide range of consumer goods.
  • Facilities for refining, assaying, making them into standard bars in India, as compared to the rest of the world, are insignificant, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Market Moving Factors

  • Above ground supply from sales by central banks, reclaimed scrap and official gold loans
  • Producer / miner hedging interest
  • World macro-economic factors - US Dollar, Interest rate
  • Comparative returns on stock markets
  • Domestic demand based on monsoon and agricultural output

From the futures point of view, gold is one of the fast moving commodities. Gold market is a healthy one with fast changes in a single day. Price changes on an average as much as Rs100 in a single day.
Gold is available in 4type of contract-

  • Gold Mini
  • Gold guinea
  • Gold(regular)
  • Gold HNI

The regular contract has a lot size of 1kg and prices are quoted for 10gms in the market. The margin required for 1 lot is approximately 50,000.
Mini gold is of lesser volume with a contract size of 100gm and margin is much lesser. Gold HNI has a contract size of 3kg.
Additional margin in case of volatility can be imposed by the exchange, however the usual margin is around 4 %.
Gold futures are active upto 11:30 pm and gold prices fluctuate fast.Gold being one of the most actively traded commodities in the exchange, is most apt for investment..

Top
Silver
Silver's unique properties make it a very useful 'Industrial Commodity', despite it being classed as a precious metal. Demand for silver is built on three main pillars; industrial uses, photography and Jewellery & silverware accounting for 342, 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in 2002. Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico, Peru and United States, respectively, the first, second and fourth largest producing countries. The third largest is Australia. Primary mines produce about 27 percent of world silver, while around 73 percent comes as a by-product of gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining. The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of other metals also, as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals.
The tie between silver and economic activity is strong, given that around two-thirds of total silver fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors. Often a faster growth in demand against supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors. Economically viable primary silver mine is a function of the world silver price level.

Indian Scenario
  • Silver imports into India for domestic consumption in 2002 was 3,400 tons down 25 % from record 4,540 tons in 2001.
  • Open General License (OGL) imports are the only significant source of supply to the Indian market.
  • Non-duty paid silver for the export sector rose sharply in 2002, up by close to 200% year-on-year to 150 tons.
  • Around 50% of India's silver requirements last year were met through imports of Chinese silver and other important sources of supply being UK, CIS, Australia and Dubai.
  • Indian industrial demand in 2002 is estimated at 1375 tons down by 13 % from 1,579 tons in 2001. In spite of this fall, India is still one of the largest users of silver in the world, ranking alongside Industrial giants like Japan and the United States.
  • By contrast with United States and Japan, Indian industrial off take for fabrication in hardcore industrial applications like electronics and brazing alloys accounts for only 15 % and the rest being for foils for use in the decorative covering of food, plating of Jewellery and silverware and jari.
  • In India silver price volatility is also an important determinant of silver demand as it is for gold.

There are 3 types of silver contracts-Silver HNI, Silver mini, Silver(regular). Unlike gold, silver prices are lower and the contract size is large, which means that larger volume of silver is traded on a single contract. The regular lot size of silver is 30 kg, with prices quoted per 1kg. Silver HNI has a larger lot size of 50kg and silver mini comes in a smaller lot size of 5 kg. The initial margin is 5%, with additional volatility requiring special margin.

Biggest Price Movement since 1995
Between February 4 - 6, 1998, daily prices rocketed by 22.3%, as on a noted US financier had accumulated nearly 130 ounces of physical silver.
Note: Post September 1999 daily silver prices have not shown more than 5% movement once and weekly silver prices only once.

Top

Us Dollar

The currency futures started live operations on 7th October, 2008, by launching monthly contracts in the USD/INR currency pair under the regulatory framework of Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), and Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Each USD/INR contract on MCX-SX has a life of 12 months from the month in which it was launched. Contracts in other currency pairs will be launched in course of time with prior regulatory approval.
Symbol

USDINR

Instrument Type

FUTCUR

Unit of trading

1 (1 unit denotes 1000 USD)

Underlying

The exchange rate in Indian Rupees for a US Dollar

Tick size

Rs.0.25 paise or INR 0.0025

Trading hours

Monday to Friday
9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Contract trading cycle

12 month trading cycle.

Last trading day

Two working days prior to the last business day of the expiry month at 12 noon.

Final settlement day

Last working day (excluding Saturdays) of the expiry month.
The last working day will be the same as that for Interbank Settlements in Mumbai.

Quantity Freeze

Above 10,000

Base price

Theoretical price on the 1st day of the contract. On all other days, DSP of the contract

Price operating range

Tenure upto 6 months

Tenure greater than 6 months

+/-3 % of base price

+/- 5% of base price

Position limits

Clients

Trading Members

Banks

Higher of 6% of total open interest or USD 5 million

Higher of 15% of the total open interest or USD 25 million

Higher of 15% of the total open interest or USD 100 million

Minimum initial margin

1.75% on day 1, 1% thereafter

Extreme loss margin

1% of MTM value of open position.

Calendar spreads

Minimum Rs. 250/- per contract for all months of spread

Settlement

Daily settlement : T + 1
Final settlement : T + 2

Mode of settlement

Cash settled in Indian Rupees

Daily settlement price (DSP)

Calculated on the basis of the last half an hour weighted average price.

Final settlement price (FSP)

RBI reference rate

How it works
  • Presently, all futures contracts on MCX-SX are cash settled. There are no physical contracts.
  • All trade on MCX-SX takes place on its nationwide electronic trading platform that can be accessed from dedicated terminals at locations of the members of the exchange.
  • All participants on the MCX-SX trading platform have to participate only through trading members of the Exchange.
    • Participants have to open a trading account and deposit stipulated cash/collaterals with the trading member.
  • MCX-SX stands in as the counterparty for each transaction; so participants need not worry about default.
    • In the event of a default, MCX-SX will step in and fulfill the obligations of the defaulting party, and then proceed to recover dues and penalties from them.
  • Those who entered either by buying (long) or selling (short) a futures contract can close their contract obligations by squaring-off their positions at any time during the life of that contract by taking opposite position in the same contract.
    • A long (buy) position holder has to short (sell) the contract to square off his/her position or vice versa.
    • Participants will be relieved of their contract obligations to the extent they square off their positions.
  • All contracts that remain open at expiry are settled in Indian rupees in cash at the reference rate specified by RBI.
Hedging scenarios
Exchange-traded currency futures are used to hedge against the risk of rate volatilities in the foreign exchange markets. Here, we give two examples to illustrate the concept and mechanism of hedging:

Example 1:
Suppose an edible oil importer wants to import edible oil worth USD 100,000 and places his import order on July 15, 2008, with the delivery date being 4 months ahead. At the time when the contract is placed, in the spot market, one USD was worth say INR 44.50. But, suppose the Indian Rupee depreciates to INR 44.75 per USD when the payment is due in October 2008, the value of the payment for the importer goes up to INR 4,475,000 rather than INR 4,450,000. The hedging strategy for the importer, thus, would be:

Current Spot Rate (15th July '08)
Buy 100 USD - INR Oct '08 Contracts on 15th July ’08

44.5000
(1000 * 44.5500) * 100 (Assuming the Oct '08 contract is trading at 44.5500 on 15th July, '08)

Sell 100 USD - INR Oct '08 Contracts in Oct '08 Profit/Loss (futures market)

44.7500
1000 * (44.75 – 44.55) * 100 = 20,000

Purchases in spot market @ 44.75 Total cost of hedged transaction

44.75 * 100,000
100,000 * 44.75 – 20,000 = INR 4,455,000

Example 2:
A jeweller who is exporting gold jewellery worth USD 50,000, wants protection against possible Indian Rupee appreciation in Dec ’08, i.e. when he receives his payment. He wants to lock-in the exchange rate for the above transaction. His strategy would be:

One USD - INR contract size

:

USD 1,000

Sell 50 USD - INR Dec '08 Contracts
(on 15th Jul '08)

:

44.6500

Buy 50 USD - INR Dec '08 Contracts in Dec '08

:

44.3500

Sell USD 50,000 in spot market @ 44.35 in Dec '08 (Assume that initially Indian rupee depreciated , but later appreciated to 44.35 per USD as foreseen by the exporter by end of Dec '08)

Profit/Loss from futures (Dec '08 contract)

:

50 * 1000 *(44.65 – 44.35)
= 0.30 *50 * 1000
= INR 15,000

The net receipt in INR for the hedged transaction would be: 50,000 *44.35 + 15,000 = 2,217,500 + 15,000 = 2,232,500. Had he not participated in futures market, he would have got only INR 2,217,500. Thus, he kept his sales unexposed to foreign exchange rate risk.

Top

Pepper
The supply of pepper has seen a dramatic increase over the last ten years. While prices have fallen over the last three years, the market has absorbed the supply of pepper 

Global Scenario
  • The global production of pepper fluctuates between 3-3.5 lakh tons tons, with a production of 3.25 lakh tons recorded in 2003. 
  • Vietnam (85000 tons), Indonesia (67000 tons), India (65000 tons), Brazil (35000 tons), Malaysia (22000 tons), Sri Lanka (12750 tons), Thailand, China are the major producers of pepper in the World. 
  • Vietnam's sudden increase in production has resulted in the global production, increasing to 3-3.5 lakh tons from 1.9-2 lakh tons in the late nineties. Vietnam is the world's largest producer and exporter of pepper in the world now. 
  • The global exports of pepper are around 2-2.5 lakh tons, with 2.29 lakh tons being exported in 2003. 
  • The major exporters of pepper are Vietnam (82000 tons), Indonesia (57000 tons), Brazil (37940 tons), Malaysia (18500 tons) and India (17200 tons).

Major World Markets

  • New York, Singapore and Rotterdam are major international trading centers for pepper. The primary international grades and their markets are Lampung at Panjang (Indonesia), Sarawak at Kuching (Malaysia), Vietnam at HCM City (Vietnam). However, Malabar grade of pepper from India traded at Kochi, Kerala is considered to be the premium grade of pepper and rules above the international grades.

Indian Scenario

  • India harvests most of its pepper at the beginning of the year. During 2003, production of pepper in India was reported to be 65,000 tons against 80,000 tons in 2002. 
  • Kerala accounts for 90% of India's pepper production. The other producers are Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. 
  • During 2003, Indian exports of pepper amounted to 17,200 tons, registering a 31% fall compared to exports of 24,914 tons in 2002. The export in 2003 was the lowest quantity of pepper exported from India during the last four decades. This quantity was only 64% of the average export over the last five years. In terms of export share, India contributed only 8% to total producing country exports in 2003, a fall from the 14% of average share during last five years. 

Developments in the spice industry in India have significantly affected exports. During 2003, export of whole pepper from India was only 26% of the total production, against 31% during 2002. The main market for Malabar black was United States, which traditionally imported around 50% of India's exports, followed by Canada, Netherlands and Italy. However, during 2003, only 30% of India's export was shipped to the United States.

Major Indian Markets

  • Kochi, Sulthan Bathery in Kerala are the major primary markets. Nagpur, Indore and Delhi have recently developed as the major up country markets for pepper.

Markets Influencing Factors

  • Indian pepper is at a premium against all the international grades. However, the production and exports of pepper from other locations has a profound influence on Indian pepper prices too. 
  • Weather and the annual production of a year. 
  • Year ending stocks and stocks-to-consumption.
  • Indian pepper arrives in the market in the beginning of the year. However, distress selling is not witnessed in pepper and the producers hold back the stock in anticipation of better prices.
  • Government policies with regard to imports and exports.

Traders allege large-scale imports of pepper from Sri Lanka and re-export from India as a major price depressing factor and Government has been asked to take measures to stop this practice.

Top
Crude Oil
  • The world’s economies have been built upon fossil fuels derived from crude oil. Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs. Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total world's primary energy consumption. Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or other. Oil & lubricants, transportation, petrochemicals, pesticides and insecticides, paints, perfumes, etc. are largely and directly affected by the oil prices. Aviation gasoline, motor gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, lubricants, paraffin wax, petroleum coke, asphalt and other products are obtained from the processing of crude and other hydrocarbon compounds. The prices of crude are highly volatile. High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases input costs; reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries.
Categories of Crude oil
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is of very high quality. Its API gravity is 39.6 degrees (making it a "light" crude oil), and it contains only about 0.24 percent of sulphur (making a "sweet" crude oil). WTI is generally priced at about a $2-4 per-barrel premium to OPEC Basket price and about $1-2 per barrel premium to Brent, although on a daily basis the pricing relationships between these can very greatly.
  • Brent Crude Oil stands as a benchmark for Europe and is mostly drilled from the North Sea.
  • India is very much reliant on oil from the Middle East (High Sulphur). The OPEC has identified China & India as their main buyers of oil in Asia for several years to come.
Crude Oil Units (average gravity)
  • 1 US barrel = 42 US gallons.
  • 1 US barrel = 158.98 litres.
  • 1 tonne = 7.33 barrels .
  • 1 short ton = 6.65 barrels .
  • Note: barrels per tonne vary from origin to origin.

Market Influencing Factors

  • OPEC output and supply . 
  • Terrorism, Weather/storms, War and any other unforeseen geopolitical factors that causes supply disruptions. 
  • Global demand particularly from emerging nations.
  • Dollar fluctuations.
  • DOE / API imports and stocks.
  • Refinery fires & funds buying.

Standard trading unit for crude oil is 100 barrels. The prices are quoted with respect to a single barrel. Initial margin is 5% and delivery margin is 25%. Trading time for crude oil, unlike other commodities extend to 11:30 pm.
Internationally Crude Oil is one of the commodities that are the focus of hedge funds and hence is actively traded. The impact of these futures price surges of oil have hit the world prices of petrol and diesel . Our country too has faced the increasing prices of crude.  Local market volumes are not as considerable as what is traded outside India, but it is one of the commodities to bet on.

Top
 
  Gold
  Silver
  US Dollar
  Pepper
               Many more...
 
ASPIN COMMODITIES PVT LTD
F-16 Empire Building
Kombara Jn.
Behind High Court
Kochi-14 - Ernakulam
Kerala-682014, India.
Telephone:+91-484-3027400/401-409
Fax:+91-484-2394817
Mob:+91-9746229006 /9446013172/
9995518307
Email: aspin.anil@gmail.com,
aspinpvtltd@gmail.com,
anilksr@hotmail.com
info@aspin.in,
anil@aspin.in
soman@aspin.in,
suhas@aspin.in

philip@aspin.in